The Viking Dutchman doesn’t ordinarily read the National Journal, but he found himself over there today after an associate linked him a piece from there.
In the sidebar, he came across two vaguely contradictory articles about next year’s midterms. The first covered GOP optimism about reclaiming the Senate in the 2014 midterms, and the second suggested those same elections would be ruinous for GOP governors.
The seemingly odd juxtaposition is easily explained by the fact that Governors serve 4 year terms and Senators 6. Which means the Governors up for re-election next year last faced the ballot in the extremely GOP-favorable 2010 election. That election gave a raft of moderate swing states staunchly conservative governors and legislatures, including Ohio, Michigan, Florida and Pennsylvania. Those state governments have gone on to extremely controversial terms in all those states, raising the threat of mass public backlash next year. Favorable 2010 redistricting will likely shield GOP legislatures at least partially, but governors are elected statewide and enjoy no such protection.
To understand the Senate situation, you need to understand both the 2008 and 2010 elections. The seats up for election in 2014 were last elected in the 2008 election. 2008 was, in related but still distinct ways, both a terrible year for Republicans and a great year for Democrats. While Democratic gains that year were mostly in moderate states (such as New Mexico and Minnesota), the favorable conditions also allowed the party to hold onto seats in a few conservative states, like Louisiana and Montana, originally acquired by members of the party’s now mostly defunct conservative wing. Those seats will be extremely difficult to hold in 2014, especially in Montana, where the top Democratic potential candidate, former Governor Brian Schweitzer, has opted not to run.
The other piece of the problem for the the Dems is the 2010 election. That election handed the GOP a raft of seats in states ordinarily unfavorable to the Democrats, including Obama’s own former seat in Illinois. The continuing presence of those senators gives the GOP a tremendous structural advantage in building a Senate majority.
Electoral rules matter people! Nobody wants to talk about them, but they’re actually very very important, often the most important thing in determining political outcomes in democratic states.
The Viking Dutchman 